UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC featherweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 259 as No. 2-ranked Diego Lopes faces No. 10-ranked Jean “Lord" Silva.
- Arena: Frost Bank Center
- Location: San Antonio, Texas, United States
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Date: September 13, 2025
- Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
UFC Fight Night: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Unranked middleweights Kelvin Gastelum and Dustin Stoltzfus will face off in the cage. Gastelum has lost seven of his last ten fights, but has alternated wins and losses over his previous four. Stoltzfus has lost six of his last ten contests and also alternated wins and losses over his previous four.
Stoltzfus is three inches taller and has a 3.5-inch reach advantage. Neither fighter has overwhelming power, knocking down opponents 0.41 and 0.32 times per 15 minutes. They both land above three and absorb above three significant strikes per minute, with Gastelum landing and taking slightly more. Stoltzfus will have the wrestling advantage, landing 1.21 more takedowns per 15 minutes. He is also the more dangerous fighter on the ground, averaging 1.20 more submissions per 15 minutes than Gastelum.
Gastelum has faced tougher competition throughout his career, but he has been notoriously undisciplined with his weight and has a better frame for welterweight. I think there’s a decent chance to pick up a value win on Stoltzfus pulling off an upset decision.
💰 Best Bet: Dustin Stoltzfus by Points (+310)
UFC Fight Night: Rob Font vs. David Martínez
No. 3-ranked Rob Font will take on unranked David Martinez. Font is on a two-fight win streak, but is 2-2 over his last four bouts. Martinez is riding an eight-fight win streak, but only one of those has come in the UFC.
Font is three inches taller and sports a four-inch reach advantage. Martinez has the power edge, knocking down opponents 0.76 times per 15 minutes. Both fighters are very active on the feet, landing over 5.4 significant strikes per minute, but Font absorbs 0.97 more. Font should have a slight grappling edge, but this fight most likely stays standing.
This fight is listed as a pick ’em, but Font is 38 years old, and the division isn’t kind to older fighters.
💰 Best Bet: Martinez to Win (-102)
UFC Fight Night: Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva
- Odds to Win: Lopes +184 | Silva -230
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -150 | Submission +430 | Decision +210
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +220 | No -310
Diego Lopes will look to rebound after losing a title bout by beating rising star Jean Silva. Lopes is fresh off losing a UFC Featherweight title fight to Alexander Volkanovski, but was riding a five-fight win streak heading into that contest. Silva has won 13 straight, five of which have been in the UFC.
Lopes is four inches taller and has a 3.5-inch reach advantage. Both fighters have power, but Silva (1.5) more than doubles Lopes’s (0.71) knockdown rate per 15 minutes. Silva also lands 1.17 more and absorbs 0.63 fewer significant strikes per minute. Neither fighter is a great wrestler, averaging fewer than one takedown per 15 minutes of action. However, Lopes averages 1.05 more submissions per 15 minutes.
Silva is listed as the favorite at -230, which I think is warranted based on his last performance against Bryce Mitchell. There is value on Lopes to win straight up, but Silva has finished all five of his UFC fights (4 KO/TKO, 1 Submission).
💰 Best Bet: Silva by KO/TKO (+105)
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
